We Compiled the Sales for the Last 6 Black Fridays So You Know What to Expect This Year

There is saving, and then there is strategy.

Let’s pretend that life is a movie for just a second, and you need to prepare yourself for the madness that is the most anticipated and heavily trafficked shopping event of the year: Black Friday.

Consider this your training montage.

Just like a four-star general wouldn’t go to battle without a clear strategy, several back-up plans, and a thorough knowledge of the terrain and the enemy, we’re not going to let you wake up, blearily unlock your phone, and charge in blind on the 26th. Every year, retailers compete to have the most enticing deals and sales. It’s easy to get overwhelmed by the deluge and panic-buy a bunch of stuff ($5 waffle irons) you don’t really need, or click on what looks like a good deal but isn’t.

The best way to weather Black Friday and emerge victorious is to have a clear goal (what you want) and a little insight into your opponent.

That’s where we come in.

We’ve been tracking Black Friday sales since the early days of Primer. And we’ve noticed that most retailers tend to pick a deal structure and stick with it. Companies plan out their Black Friday sales months in advance, and they’re probably not going to offer 35% off of full-price items one year and then 60% off clearance the next.

For example, Banana Republic has done some variation of “50% off” for the last 4 years.

We’re giving you the tactical advantage with our Black Friday comparison chart compiled from the deals we featured from 2015-2020, which should help you gauge what you can reasonably expect from your favorite brands.

How to Actually Get a Good Deal on Black Friday

Let's start with the number one, most important buying tip that always applies: Buying something you don't need just because it's on sale isn't a good deal.

Unlike a lot of sales throughout the year that come up unannounced, unless you follow retail industry trends, we know the year's best discounts are coming on the day after Thanksgiving. Knowing that, and armed with the information in the table below, you now have a full week to think about what you actually need so you can buy it for the cheapest price all year.

This is when many companies have deals without exclusions. So if there’s a large-ticket item that you know you’ll need in the next few months, or there's a splurge purchase like a leather jacket, which are excluded from normal sales, jump on it now rather than paying more at a later date.

If you're like me, when you start poking around the Primer Black Friday gift guide that morning, you probably aren't mentally prepared to drop $250 on a leather jacket, so instead you buy a bunch of $10 pocket tees and a pair of jeans for 50% off.

But with a little bit of thinking ahead of time, it may make sense to finally pull the trigger on that suede trucker jacket if it's at an all-time low price.

How to Shop Tactically

Since Black Friday is one of the few annual promotions that retailers offer their highest discount or have no exclusions, that makes it the smart time to look at:

• Higher quality brands / material compositions than you can normally afford
• Outerwear
• Sweaters
• Leather
• Suits
• Higher quality secondary buys like premium underwear, socks, and ties
• Nicer brands like Taylor Stitch that rarely do sales outside of BF

So think about what you need or have been wanting and use Black Friday to buy it at a cheaper price, or to buy a better version at a price you can afford.

If there’s one retailer that’s known for its dizzying array of special sales and pricing, it’s Amazon. We do a round-up every year, and can say the safe bet is you should think about upgrading accessories like watches and belts, as well as sneakers and outerwear. Of course, Amazon devices are going to be featured, and popular home gadgets like sous vide machines, air fryers, Instapots, etc., frequently get industry-leading discounts.

Be sure to check back with us next week for our deals post–

We’ll keep you updated with the best sales and prices on tech, apparel, home goods, and more. You can head to Primer's homepage Black Friday morning for the full guide, or better yet, subscribe to our newsletter to get first dibs. Forewarned is forearmed!

This chart is based on the deals we tracked in the previous years. Cells with a “/” are missing because we chose not to feature that retailer in a particular year. Many sites have already started Black Friday promotions, but we've found the best deals still start on the day after Thanksgiving.